Could it really happen?
Previous studies by environmental campaigners have stated we ideally need to stop using internal combustion engine cars by 2035 in order to meet tough future emissions standards. Given how electric vehicles currently account for a tiny percentage of global sales, this sounds like a pretty ambitious plan.
This hasn't stopped Stanford University economist Tony Seba from thinking bold, though. His new report “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030” claims that no more petrol or diesel car, buses, and trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within only eight years.
“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Seba says. That’s true, but is it really going to happen that fast?
The turning point for the industry, according to the study, will arrive in only two or three years as batteries for electric vehicles improve sufficiently to reach a tipping point. Seba sees 200 miles on a single charge and a $30,000 price (around £23,000) for a family EV as numbers we will start seeing before the end of the decade.
“What the cost curve says is that by 2025, all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally," states Seba's report.
He goes further. Only nostalgic types will hold on to the old habit of car ownership. Most of the customers will adapt to a new way of transportation. Oh, and car dealerships will disappear by 2024.
Motorists will make big savings as well. The cost per mile for EVs will drop to around 6p a mile, while insurance costs will fall by 90 percent thanks to autonomous technologies. More than 95 percent of the miles driven in the United States by 2030 will be in autonomous EVs. Global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020 – and plummet back down to 70 million barrels by 2030.
Hit the two source links below for further details from the study.